{"id":6725,"date":"2009-01-21T10:06:15","date_gmt":"2009-01-21T08:06:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redgatecapital.eu\/risky-excercise-of-estonian-government-aare-tammemaes-opinion-article-in-estonian\/"},"modified":"2009-01-21T10:06:15","modified_gmt":"2009-01-21T08:06:15","slug":"risky-excercise-of-estonian-government-aare-tammemaes-opinion-article-in-estonian","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redgatecapital.eu\/en\/risky-excercise-of-estonian-government-aare-tammemaes-opinion-article-in-estonian\/","title":{"rendered":"Risky excercise of Estonian government. Aare Tammem\u00e4e’s opinion article (in Estonian)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Senior Partner of Redgate Capital Aare Tammem\u00e4e expresses his opinion on Estonia’s current economic situation and gives advice to the government on how to cope with the crisis.<\/p>\n

\n

Eesti valitsuse riskantne man\u00f6\u00f6ver<\/a><\/h3>\n

Eesti majandus on seisus, kus tuleb sooritada samasugune man\u00f6\u00f6ver, kui seda tegi hiljuti lennukiga ameeriklane Chesley B.\u00a0 Sullenberger, kui ta maandas reisilennuki 155 inimesega pardal Hudsoni j\u00f5kke. See riskantne man\u00f6\u00f6ver \u00f5nnestus vaatamata sellele, et paljud inimesed vajasid hiljem meedikute abi. Kas samasugune man\u00f6\u00f6ver \u00f5nnestub ka Eesti valitsusel t\u00fc\u00fcrides majanduse uuele t\u00f5usule?<\/p>\n

Kui 2008. aastal kujunes eelarve defitsiidiks hinnanguliselt 5 miljardit krooni, siis 2009. aastaks ennustas Taavi Veskim\u00e4gi Eesti riigile v\u00e4hemalt 10 miljardilist eelarve defitsiiti. Kui riik laenu ei v\u00f5ta, siis kaetakse defitsiit reservidega. Samas on selgunud, et ainu\u00fcksi kahe viimase kuuga (nov-dets 2008) kadus riigireservidest 6 mlrd krooni! Sama tempo j\u00e4tkates oleme juuniks 2009 oma hoiup\u00f5rsa t\u00fchjendanud.<\/p>\n

Eesti v\u00f5iks olulised reformid viia ellu rahvusvahelise surveta ennetades teiste riikide (nt Islandi, Ungari v\u00f5i L\u00e4ti) vigu, kes olid sunnitud abi saamiseks p\u00f6\u00f6rduma IMFi poole.<\/p>\n

Kui erasektoris v\u00e4heneb mingi toote j\u00e4rele n\u00f5udlus v\u00f5i ettev\u00f5te on \u00fcle investeerinud, siis olukorraga kohandamiseks v\u00e4hendavad ettev\u00f5tted juhtimiskulusid, personali arvu v\u00f5i likvideerivad kahjumlikud \u00fcksused. Paljud ettev\u00f5tted v\u00e4hendavad v\u00f5i on juba v\u00e4hendanud t\u00f6\u00f6tajate palku vahemikus 10-30%. Riigisektoris seisavad aga paljud rasked otsused veel ees.<\/p>\n

Erasektor on sunnitud t\u00e4na kohanduma viies l\u00e4bi ulatuslikke kulude k\u00e4rpeid, et parandada konkurentsiv\u00f5imet eksporditurgudel. Eesti ettev\u00f5tjate kulubaas muutub kallimaks juba ainu\u00fcksi t\u00e4nu sellele, et mitmed naabruses asuvad riigid on l\u00e4bi viinud m\u00e4rkimisv\u00e4\u00e4rseid valuutade devalveerimisi (nt Venemaa, Ukraina, Valgevene) v\u00f5i on lasknud valuutakursil vabalt ujuda (Rootsi). See teeb Eesti ettev\u00f5tjate olukorra eksporditurgudel veelgi keerukamaks. Mida teeb aga riigisektor?<\/p>\n

Ettepanekud valitsusele kriisiga toimetulemiseks 2009. aastal<\/strong><\/p>\n

Esiteks, tuleks k\u00e4rpida eelarvekulusid koos riigisektori palkadega umbes 15-20 protsenti.<\/strong>\u00a0Konkreetselt v\u00f5iks pakkuda nii valitsemiskulude v\u00e4hendamist, kui ka muude olulisemate kulude k\u00e4rpimist v\u00f5i k\u00fclmutamist.\u00a0 See puudutaks valdkondi nagu sotisaalsf\u00e4\u00e4r ja tervishoid, kaitsekulud, teehoid, dotatsioonid bussi-ja praamiliiklusele jne. Ilma muutusteta nendes valdkondades ei ole v\u00f5imalik riigi rahandust j\u00e4tkusuutlikele r\u00f6\u00f6bastele asetada, sest need moodustavad enamuse riigikuludest.<\/p>\n

V\u00e4iksemad riigiametnike palgak\u00e4rped ei pruugi anda tulemuslikku efekti \u2013 eriti, kui ootame kriisi j\u00e4tkuvat s\u00fcvenemist, koos t\u00f6\u00f6puuduse olulise kasvuga ning maksude s\u00fcveneva alalaekumisega. Eesti elanikkonna ostuj\u00f5ud on viimastel aastatel j\u00f5udsalt paranenud, n\u00fc\u00fcd on \u00fchekordne palgak\u00e4rbe mingil m\u00e4\u00e4ral paratamatu.<\/p>\n

Teiseks valitsuse kriisiprogrammi ettevalmistamine<\/strong>. Selle m\u00f5tte on hiljuti v\u00e4lja k\u00e4inud Indrek Neivelt. Kuid n\u00e4iteid ei tule otsida kaugelt – Rootsi ja Soome on oma kriisiprogrammid valitsuses kinnitanud juba 2008. a detsembris. Kriisiprogrammid keskenduvad maksudele, ettev\u00f5tluse ja v\u00e4hese sissetulekuga inimeste toetusmeetmetele ning infrastruktuuri investeeringutele (nt Rootsis investeerib 100 miljonit eurot t\u00e4iendavalt raudtee ja teede ehitusse, lisaks eelarvelisele 934 miljonile eurole 2009-2011 aastatel).<\/p>\n

Kas Eesti riik saaks hakkama ilma laenamiseta?<\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u00e4idan, et saab. Riik loodab t\u00e4na laenata muuhulgas kohalikelt pankadelt ca 5 – 10 miljardit krooni. Kuigi Eesti riigisektori v\u00f5lakoormus on EL-s \u00fcks madalamaid, siis kardan, et isegi sellise tagasihoidliku summa laenamine on raskendatud arvestades kohalike pankade madalaid laenulimiite. Positiivse laenuotsuse korral oleks raha hind t\u00f5en\u00e4oliselt vahemikus\u00a0 8,5 \u2013 9,5% aastas. Loomulikult on olemas ka suuremad rahvusvahelised pangandusinstitutsioonid nagu Euroopa v\u00f5i P\u00f5hjamaade Investeerimispank, kuid ka nende pankade kapital ei ole piirideta. Pigem v\u00f5iks Eesti riik laenamisest hoiduda ning proovida l\u00e4hemad kaks aastat toime tulla ilma t\u00e4iendava v\u00f5\u00f5rfinantseerimiseta. See oleks v\u00e4ga selge \u00fclesande p\u00fcstitus rahandusministeeriumile ja valitusele ning suunaks riiki fokusseerima kulude otsustavaks v\u00e4hendamiseks.<\/p>\n

Valitsus vajab k\u00fclma n\u00e4rvi ja ettev\u00f5tjate tuge, et rasked, kuid vajalikud otsused vastu v\u00f5tta. Usun, et ettev\u00f5tjad on valmis siinkohal kaasa aitama vastavate programmide v\u00e4ljat\u00f6\u00f6tamisel ja elluviimisel.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Senior Partner of Redgate Capital Aare Tammem\u00e4e expresses his opinion on Estonia’s current economic situation and gives advice to the government on how to cope with the crisis. Eesti valitsuse riskantne man\u00f6\u00f6ver Eesti majandus on seisus, kus tuleb sooritada samasugune man\u00f6\u00f6ver, kui seda tegi hiljuti lennukiga ameeriklane Chesley B.\u00a0 Sullenberger, kui ta maandas reisilennuki 155 […]\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uudised"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRisky excercise of Estonian government. 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