{"id":6712,"date":"2008-11-25T10:01:46","date_gmt":"2008-11-25T08:01:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redgatecapital.eu\/perfect-crisis-what-next-veikko-maripuus-opinion-article-in-estonian\/"},"modified":"2008-11-25T10:01:46","modified_gmt":"2008-11-25T08:01:46","slug":"perfect-crisis-what-next-veikko-maripuus-opinion-article-in-estonian","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redgatecapital.eu\/en\/perfect-crisis-what-next-veikko-maripuus-opinion-article-in-estonian\/","title":{"rendered":"Perfect crisis \u2013 what next. Veikko Maripuu\u2019s opinion article (in Estonian)"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Veikko Maripuu analyzes the situation that has occurred in the last months in global financial markets and gives a realistic overview of what to prepare for in the near future.<\/p>\n

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T\u00e4iuslik kriis \u2013 mis saab edasi<\/a><\/h3>\n

\u00dcle-eelmisel n\u00e4dalavahetusel Washingtoni kogunenud maailma suurimate majanduste liidrid deklareerisid, et v\u00f5itlus finants- ja majanduskriisiga on k\u00f5igi esimene prioriteet. Samal ajal l\u00f6\u00f6di kokku kaotusi seniselt rindejoonelt. Kaotused on valusad \u2013 USA finantskriisile on CNBC andmetel kulunud summa, mis j\u00e4tab ajaloo suurimad projektid ja mastaapsemad s\u00fcndmused juba praegu selja taha.<\/p>\n

T\u00e4nap\u00e4evastes hindades maksis Euroopa s\u00f5jaj\u00e4rgse majanduse jalule aidanud Marshalli plaan 115,3 miljardit, inimese Kuule saatmise missioon 237 miljardit, t\u00e4naseni kestev Iraagi invasioon (\u201es\u00f5da terroriga\u201c) 597 miljardit, Vietnami s\u00f5da (1964-1972) 698 miljardit, II Maailmas\u00f5da (USA-le) 3,6 triljonit dollarit. Kuid k\u00f5ikide kulutuste ema on siiski praegune finantskriis. K\u00e4esolev finantskriis on USA maksumaksjale l\u00e4inud hinnanguliselt maksma juba 3,8 kuni 4,3 triljonit (!) dollarit.<\/p>\n

Ometi on reaalmajanduses keerulisemad ajad alles ees. Majandus on olulisemates majanduspiirkondades (USA, euroala), kuid ka Eestis p\u00f6\u00f6rdunud langusesse. Samas peegeldavad seni avaldatud langusnumbrid olukorda enne ulatusliku finantskriisi lahvatamist oktoobris ning enne seda, kui majandus hakkas tundma rahakriisi s\u00fcgavamat m\u00f5ju \u2013 aega, mil \u00e4riplaanide elluviimiseks v\u00f5i ka igap\u00e4evaseks majandamiseks pankadest enam laenu peaaegu ei saa ning raha saamiseks ei ole eriti ka muid alternatiive, kuna krediiditurud ei toimi.<\/p>\n

Katteta lubadused<\/strong><\/p>\n

Oktoober oli maailma kapitaliturgudel \u00fcks mustemaid kogu ajaloo v\u00e4ltel. Vallandus tuletorm, mis oli tuha all h\u00f5\u00f5gunud juba pikka aega. Olulisemad m\u00e4rgid, et USA madala krediidiv\u00f5imega ehk maakeeli \u00f6eldes v\u00e4heste v\u00f5i lausa ilma sissetulekuteta kinnisvaralaenu saajate probleemid kuhjuvad ja riskid suurenevad, tekkisid juba 2005. aasta septembris \u2013 rohkem kui 3 aastat enne t\u00e4iusliku finantskriisi vallandumist. Suurenevatele riskidele t\u00e4helepanu juhtijate avaldused ei takistanud aga turuosalistel j\u00e4rgneva kolme aasta jooksul turule paiskamast uusi eksootilisi finantsinstrumente, mis kasvatasid laenude andmist v\u00e4heste sissetulekutega laenusaajatele veelgi kiiremas tempos ning selliste instrumentide l\u00e4bipaistmatuse t\u00f5ttu l\u00fckkasid probleeme edasi.<\/p>\n

See oli aeg, mil poliitikud ega j\u00e4relevalved ei teinud \u00fchtki t\u00f5sist katset riskide kasvu pidurdada. USA rahandusminister Henry Paulson tunnistaski eelmisel n\u00e4dalal, et finantskriisi p\u00f5hjustasid muu hulgas valitsuse tegevusetus ja v\u00e4\u00e4rsammud ning rahandusasutuste liigne riskide v\u00f5tmine. Seet\u00f5ttu kasvasid probleemid j\u00e4rjest ning et sisuliselt ignoreeriti hoiatavaid tagasil\u00f6\u00f6ke turgudel nii 2007. aastal kui 2008. aasta alguses, j\u00f5udis oktoobris l\u00f5puks k\u00e4tte juba massiivne paanika, mis on turgude suurim vaenlane.<\/p>\n

N\u00fc\u00fcd asuti tegutsema, kuid \u00fclepeakaela. Kui seni olid poliitikud olnud \u00e4raootavad, siis seekord keerati teise \u00e4\u00e4rmusesse \u2013 valitsuste poolt viimasel paaril kuul v\u00f5etud uued kohustused k\u00e4ivad nendele riikidele eelk\u00f5ige l\u00fchiajaliselt selgelt \u00fcle j\u00f5u. V\u00e4idetavalt on USA valitsus juba paisanud s\u00fcsteemi p\u00e4\u00e4stmiseks summa, mis moodustab umbes 30% USA SKPst. Osa riike lubasid garanteerida k\u00f5ikidele vastava riigi pankades (ja mitmel juhul ka nende pankade v\u00e4lisfiliaalides) raha hoidvatele isikutele k\u00f5ik nende hoiused. R\u00e4\u00e4kimata intressim\u00e4\u00e4ra alandamistest, likviidsus- ja laenugarantiidest, muude kohustuste tagamisest, varade ostust, kapitali s\u00fcstimisest probleemide k\u00e4es vaevlevatele pankadele, deposiidigarantiide suurendamisest.<\/p>\n

Nii ulatuslikke plaane kinnitades keerati vint teadlikult \u00fcle, sest finantsturud tuli igal juhul maha rahustada, samuti oli vaja panna taas toimima rahaturud.<\/p>\n

Finantsmaailma probleemid kanduvad reaalmajandusse<\/strong><\/p>\n

Enamik praegustest probleemidest finantsturul on saanud alguse USA-st ja tuleb eeldada, et ka paranemine peaks hakkama paistma sealt. 3. novembril avaldas FED informatsiooni, et viimase kolme kuu jooksul on 85% USA pankadest otsustavalt karmistanud oma laenustandardeid suurtele ja keskmise suurusega ettev\u00f5tetele \u2013 nendele, kes peaksid olema esimesed, kellele pangad soovivad raha anda. See n\u00e4itaja pole olnud veel kunagi nii karm kui n\u00fc\u00fcd. Sama s\u00f5numi Euroopast annab iTRAXX indeksi liikumine, mis lihtsustatult m\u00f5\u00f5dab laenuandjate usku Euroopa tugevaimatesse laenuv\u00f5tjatesse \u2013 mida k\u00f5rgem on indeks, seda halvemini peaks ka laenud olema ettev\u00f5tetele k\u00e4ttesaadavad. 21. novembril saavutas see indeks oma ajaloo k\u00f5ige k\u00f5rgema taseme. See t\u00e4hendab seda, et hoolimata keskpankade j\u00f5upingutustest teha s\u00fcsteem uuesti likviidseks ei leia raha teed l\u00f5pp-klientideni.<\/p>\n

Sellel on mitu p\u00f5hjust. Esiteks peavad pangad aitama iseendid. Pankadeni peab j\u00f5udma kindlustunne, et h\u00e4da korral saavad nad abi. Seej\u00e4rel peab saabuma kindlus, et olukord pankadevahelisel turul on muutunud stabiilseks. Samal ajal peavad finantsasutused lahendama \u00e4ra eilsed probleemid. Paljud pangad l\u00f5dvendasid liigselt laenude andmise standardeid ning paljud investeeringuid tegevad ettev\u00f5tted soetasid viimaste aastate buumi jooksul varasid ilma p\u00e4deva anal\u00fc\u00fcsita. N\u00fc\u00fcd on selle tagaj\u00e4rjeks suurenevad laenukahjumid ja kivina kukkunud varade hinnad, kuid ka sellised varad, millega t\u00e4na \u00fcldse kaubelda ei saa.<\/p>\n

Teiseks ei usalda pangad majanduse v\u00e4ljavaateid ja arvestavad sellega, et ettev\u00f5tetel ja inimestel, kes soovivad laenu v\u00f5tta on ees halvemad ajad.<\/p>\n

Alles seej\u00e4rel, kui taastub usaldus, kui eksisteerivate finantsasutuste bilansid on eilsetest probleemidest oluliselt puhastunud, kui krediidikahjumite ulatus on suures osas teatavaks saanud, kui usk majandusse hakkab taastuma v\u00f5ib hakata lootma, et raha saab oluliselt kergemini ja odavamalt kui praegu ja l\u00e4hitulevikus. Uute kriiside ennetamiseks tuleb uuendada ka regulatsioone, kuid eesm\u00e4rk ei tohi kindlasti olla \u00fclereguleerimine. Et mitte teha pikaajaliselt rohkemgi kahju, peab siin r\u00f5hk olema s\u00f5nal tark, mitte massiivne.<\/p>\n

L\u00e4ks kolm aastat selleks, et riskidele suurema t\u00e4helepanu juhtimisest 2005. aasta septembris vallanduks maailmas t\u00f5eline kriis. T\u00e4na, mil krediidikahjumite ulatus on isegi t\u00e4ielikult kokku arvutamata ning tarbijate seas s\u00fcveneb pessimism, pole alust arvata, et olukorra paranemine v\u00f5iks minna oluliselt kiiremini ka juhul, kui ei tule uusi tagasil\u00f6\u00f6ke.<\/p>\n

Ka majandusolukord Eestis j\u00e4tkab enne normaliseerumist ja uut t\u00f5usu veel halvenemist. Vahepealne kainenemine peab aitama majandust puhastada ebaefektiivsetest \u00e4ridest, v\u00e4hendades siseturule suunatud majandussektorite osakaalu ning langetades t\u00f6\u00f6tajate palgakasvu ootusi. Pikemas perspektiivis \u2013 juhul kui \u00f5nnestub tagada stabiilsem keskkond (sh maksude osas, suhete valdkonnas Venemaa jt riikidega), millega kaasneb pikaajalise konkurentsiv\u00f5imega v\u00e4listurgudele suunatud majandusvaldkondade arendamise ja toetamise keskkond, kuid mille regulatsioonid ei tohi olla liiga j\u00e4igalt paika pandud \u2013 on praegusel kriisil tulevikule positiivne m\u00f5ju. Selle nimel peab j\u00e4rgnevate aastate jooksul k\u00f5vasti t\u00f6\u00f6d ja koost\u00f6\u00f6d\u00a0 tegema.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Veikko Maripuu analyzes the situation that has occurred in the last months in global financial markets and gives a realistic overview of what to prepare for in the near future. T\u00e4iuslik kriis \u2013 mis saab edasi \u00dcle-eelmisel n\u00e4dalavahetusel Washingtoni kogunenud maailma suurimate majanduste liidrid deklareerisid, et v\u00f5itlus finants- ja majanduskriisiga on k\u00f5igi esimene prioriteet. Samal […]\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uudised"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPerfect crisis \u2013 what next. 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