{"id":6710,"date":"2008-12-04T10:01:00","date_gmt":"2008-12-04T08:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redgatecapital.eu\/price-of-the-simple-life-veikko-maripuus-opinion-article-in-estonian\/"},"modified":"2008-12-04T10:01:00","modified_gmt":"2008-12-04T08:01:00","slug":"price-of-the-simple-life-veikko-maripuus-opinion-article-in-estonian","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redgatecapital.eu\/en\/price-of-the-simple-life-veikko-maripuus-opinion-article-in-estonian\/","title":{"rendered":"Price of the simple life. Veikko Maripuu\u2019s opinion article (in Estonian)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Redgate Capital\u2019s Senior Partner Veikko Maripuu expresses his concern about the current situation in Eastern Europe. To many this area is deteriorating into an unstable region. Analyses warn that one should be careful to invest in Latvia particularly, and the Baltic states in general.<\/p>\n

Though one thinks that all the Baltic states are in the same situation Veikko Maripuu stresses that the Estonian situation is a bit better because all the commercial banks belong to foreign banks and they reckon that they either manage problems on their own or with help from Sweden.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

Lihtsa elu hind<\/a><\/h3>\n

Balti riigid on langenud v\u00e4lisinvestorite silmis reformimeelse piirkonna staatusest ohutsooni<\/strong><\/p>\n

Juba ammu pole \u00fckski majandusprobleem saavutanud praeguse finantskriisi mastaapsust \u2013 selle m\u00f5ju tunneb kogu maailm. Kuid on \u00fcks piirkond, mis vaid k\u00fcmme aastat peale eelmist suuremat vapustust on muutumas eriti haavatavaks \u2013 Ida-Euroopa. Oleme paljude silmis j\u00e4lle k\u00f5ikuv \u00fcleminekuregioon, mitte muljetavaldav ja d\u00fcnaamiline Uus-Euroopa.<\/p>\n

M\u00f5ned Ida-Euroopa piirkonnad on langenud v\u00e4lisinvestorite ja -anal\u00fc\u00fctikute eriti terava t\u00e4helepanu alla. Reitinguagentuuride ja suurpankade nagu ING ja Citigroup anal\u00fc\u00fcsid paljastavad ilmekalt ning \u00fcha h\u00e4\u00e4lekamalt \u2013 (v\u00e4lis)investorid peaksid olema \u00e4\u00e4rmiselt ettevaatlikud L\u00e4ti, kuid ka teiste Balti riikide suhtes. Veelgi enam \u2013 \u00fcha h\u00e4\u00e4lekamalt on kuulda, et m\u00f5nede riikide valuutakursid on ohus.<\/p>\n

Majandussurutise ja krediidikriisi topeltm\u00f5jud<\/strong><\/p>\n

K\u00f5igepealt globaalse majandussurutise m\u00f5judest. Ekspordipotentsiaali silmas pidades on Ida-Euroopa, kaasa arvatud Eesti olukord seekord keerulisem kui \u00fcheksak\u00fcmnendate l\u00f5pus. Siis olid paindlikumad ettev\u00f5tted v\u00f5imelised p\u00f6\u00f6rama end Idast L\u00e4\u00e4nde, kus tarbijate ostuj\u00f5ud oli erinevalt kriisis vaevlevatest idapoolsetest turgudest tugev ja kasvav. T\u00e4na on euroala majandussurutises ning ei taga sarnase kasvutempoga n\u00f5udlust Eesti kaupade ja teenuste j\u00e4rele kui k\u00fcmme aastat tagasi. Samal ajal pole ka lootust \u2013 ei majanduslikult ega poliitiliselt, et eksport idasuunas hakkaks kiiresti kasvama ja kompenseeriks n\u00f5udluse kahanemise L\u00e4\u00e4nes.<\/p>\n

Teiseks t\u00f5siseks probleemiks meie regioonile on otsesed krediidikriisi m\u00f5jud. Laenubuum kasvas pea k\u00f5ikides selle piirkonna riikides liiga kiireks. Selles kategoorias on alates 2001. aastast k\u00f5ige suurema suhtelise kasvuga (laenuportfelli suurus v\u00f5rreldes SKP-ga) silma paistnud Balti riigid, Bulgaaria, Kasahstan ja Ukraina. Ajal, mil viimased on kiire spurdi, kuid v\u00e4ga madala stardipositsiooni t\u00f5ttu praegu regiooni keskmike hulgas on Eesti ja L\u00e4ti t\u00e4naseks Ida-Euroopa k\u00f5ige k\u00f5rgema laenude-SKP suhtarvudega riigid.<\/p>\n

Laenukasv pidurdub aastateks<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kuna Ida-Euroopa laenukasvu on peamiselt finantseeritud v\u00e4ljapoolt tuleva rahaga, on laenukasv olnud oluliselt kiirem kui deposiitide kasv. Eestis, nii nagu ka L\u00e4tis ja Leedus oli deposiitidest m\u00e4rkimisv\u00e4\u00e4rselt kiirema laenukasvu taga Skandinaavia emapankade rahakraanid, mille kaudu oli v\u00f5imalik saada kohalikest deposiitidest oluliselt odavamat raha. Sarnases olukorras olid ka mitmed teised Euroopa Liidu uusriikide pangad, kes said odavat v\u00e4lisraha oma emapankadelt Austriast, Kreekalt v\u00f5i Itaaliast.<\/p>\n

Riikides, kus laenude ja deposiitide tasemed on eelnevatel aastatel oluliselt k\u00e4risenud deposiitide kahjuks, ei ole ka rahvusvahelise krediidituru avanemise korral loota laenukasvu kiiret taastumist, sest k\u00f5igepealt lapivad pangad oma haavu ega kipu uut laenukasvu rahastama v\u00e4lisvahenditest vaid kohalikest deposiitidest. Seep\u00e4rast v\u00f5ib veel aastate jooksul peale kriisi taandumist oodata Ida-Euroopa eelneva kiire laenukasvuga piirkondi Aasia riikide k\u00e4ek\u00e4ik, kus laenude kasv on olnud tagasihoidlik juba viimased k\u00fcmmekond aastat. Nimelt kannatasid Aasia riigid r\u00e4ngalt 90.-ndate niinimetatud t\u00f5usvate turgude kriisi l\u00e4bi, mist\u00f5ttu nendes riikides oli laenude kasvutempo viimastel aastatel palju olulisema j\u00e4relevalve ja (enese)kontrolli all. T\u00f5si, seet\u00f5ttu on Aasia t\u00e4na ka turvalisemas seisus kui Ida-Euroopa.<\/p>\n

Reservid on stabiilsuse v\u00f5ti<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kuna Ida-Euroopa laenukasv (peale m\u00f5nede erandite) p\u00f5hines eelk\u00f5ige v\u00e4lisfinantseerimisel, on v\u00e4lisv\u00f5la (riigi ja erasektori v\u00f5lad kokku) kasv Ida-Euroopas olnud kiire ja praeguse krediidikriisi tingimustes on selle finantseerimine suur v\u00e4ljakutse. Kui siia lisada ka jooksevkonto defitsiidi tase, siis nende n\u00e4itajate alusel saavad Horvaatia ja Rumeenia, kuid j\u00e4llegi ka Balti riigid negatiivsemat t\u00e4helepanu.<\/p>\n

Paremas olukorras on riigid, mis on viimastel aastatel reservide mahtu hoopis oluliselt kasvatanud \u2013 nende hulka kuuluvad eelk\u00f5ige toorainerikkad riigid Venemaa ja Kasahstan. Venemaa on praegu nii v\u00e4lism\u00f5jude (kuid ka sisem\u00f5jude) eest turvaliselt kaitstud. Vene reservide maht on nii suur, et kui riiki peaks tabama naftahindade languse t\u00f5ttu oluline jooksevkonto halvenemine, kui riik, selle ettev\u00f5tted ja eraisikud maksaks tagasi kogu l\u00fchiajalise v\u00e4lisv\u00f5la ning vahetaks k\u00f5ik nii vabalt ringluses olevad kui ka pankades hoiustatavad rublad dollarite vastu, siis oleks tema v\u00e4lisvaluutareservid pooleteise aasta p\u00e4rast ikka palju suuremad kui n\u00e4iteks 2003. aastal, mil tal oli juba varutud m\u00e4rkimisv\u00e4\u00e4rne reservide tagavara.<\/p>\n

Kardetud, kuid v\u00e4ltimatu IMF<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ja ikkagi, isegi kui riigid seisavad t\u00e4nases keerulises maailmas silmitsi v\u00e4lisinvestoritele raha tagasimakse kohustustega, t\u00f5estab viimaste kuude areng Ida-Euroopas, et k\u00f5ige p\u00f5letavamad\u00a0 probleemid v\u00f5ivad tabada riike mitte v\u00e4ljast-, vaid seestpoolt. Reeglina n\u00f5uab kohest tegutsemist raha v\u00e4ljavool pankadest. Ning juhul, kui pankadel pole tugevaid v\u00e4lisomanikke (kas piisava kapitalibaasiga v\u00f5i v\u00e4hemalt oma koduriikides tugeva valitsuse toetusega nagu Eesti suurimate pankade emapangad), siis on sunnitud sekkuma riik.<\/p>\n

N\u00e4iteid pole vaja kaugelt otsida \u2013 L\u00e4ti pidi alustama l\u00e4bir\u00e4\u00e4kimisi IMF-i ja Euroopa Liiduga abipaketi osas peale seda, kui v\u00f5ttis \u00fcle Parex panga \u2013 kohalike investorite kontrolli all olnud panga, kust ootamatult tekkis raha kiire ja peatumatu v\u00e4ljavool. Sarnased on olukorrad olnud ka Ukrainas ja Ungaris, kus valitsus oli sunnitud sekkuma ja p\u00e4\u00e4stma suuremad kohalike investorite kontrolli all olnud pangad.<\/p>\n

L\u00e4ti l\u00e4bir\u00e4\u00e4kimised IMF-iga abipaketi kindlustamiseks ei ole kerged, sest L\u00e4ti vajab palju raha. Kuid isegi juhul, kui L\u00e4ti saab vajaliku rahasumma, on sellisel toetusel pea alati oluline lisahind. IMF n\u00f5uab abi saanud riigilt pikaajalise konkurentsiv\u00f5ime tagamist, seda pahatihti valuutakursi korrigeerimise ehk valuuta devalveerimise teel. Kuna see pole kaugeltki L\u00e4ti l\u00e4bir\u00e4\u00e4kijatele meelep\u00e4rane stsenaarium, on nad avalikkusele kinnitanud, et lati kursi \u00fcle l\u00e4bi ei r\u00e4\u00e4gita. Kuid v\u00f5imalikud abiandjad on siiski teisel pool l\u00e4bir\u00e4\u00e4kimiste lauda.<\/p>\n

Piirkond, mida veel hiljaaegu nimetati Balti tiigriteks, on t\u00e4na v\u00e4ljapoolt vaadates keerulises seisus. L\u00e4ti on k\u00f5ige haavatavam, kuid tema j\u00e4rgi hinnatakse pahatihti k\u00f5iki kolme. Eesti riigi olukorra teeb praeguses kriisis lihtsamaks peamiselt asjaolu, et riigi kommertspangad on pea t\u00e4ielikult v\u00e4lispankade kontrolli all ja arvestavad sellega, et peavad l\u00e4hituleviku probleemidega kas ise v\u00f5i Rootsi riigi abil toime tulema. Kogu Eesti majandusele on oluline, et meie pangad sellega rahuldavalt hakkama saaksid.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Redgate Capital\u2019s Senior Partner Veikko Maripuu expresses his concern about the current situation in Eastern Europe. To many this area is deteriorating into an unstable region. Analyses warn that one should be careful to invest in Latvia particularly, and the Baltic states in general. Though one thinks that all the Baltic states are in the […]\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6710","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uudised"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPrice of the simple life. 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